Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Apple Alternaria Leaf Blotch
Update time:2025-03-19
Recently, a research team led by Professor Yu Qiang and Zhao Gang from the College of Soil and Water Conservation Science and Engineering （Institute of Soil and Water Conservation），Northwest A&F University published a study titled "Climate-driven shifts in suitable areas of Alternaria leaf blotch (Alternaria mali Roberts) on apples: Projections and uncertainty analysis in China" in the journal “Agricultural and Forest Meteorology”. The study delves into the impacts of climate change on the distribution and severity of Alternaria leaf blotch (ALB) in China, analyzing trends and uncertainties in the shifts of ALB-suitable areas. Findings reveal that climate change is likely to expand the range of ALB-suitable regions, with certain areas facing heightened risks in the coming decades.
PhD candidate Bin Chen from Northwest A&F University is the first author of the paper, with Professors Yu Qiang and Zhao Gang serving as corresponding authors. By integrating orchard surveys, public databases, and literature-derived ALB occurrence data, the team employed multiple Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to assess ALB’s environmental suitability. They projected future distributions under various climate scenarios using five Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the CMIP6 dataset. The study compared baseline conditions (1970–2000) with projections for the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585).
Key findings indicate that during the baseline period, ALB-suitable areas were concentrated in major apple-planring regions such as the Bohai Bay, Loess Plateau, and Old Course of the Yellow River. By the 2090s, under the SSP126 scenario, suitable area are projected to decrease by 8.89%. Conversely, under SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, suitable area are expected to increase by 4.89%, 21.30%, and 23.22%, respectively. These regions will shift northwestward by 137–263 km and ascend in elevation by 288–680 meters. The study also quantified uncertainty sources: GCMs contributed 42.2%, SDMs 31.5%, and scenario settings 8.28%.
Figure 1 Changes in the range of suitable areas for Alternaria leaf blotch of apple in China under future conditions, relative to the baseline period.
The research underscores the necessity of integrating multi-model approaches and scenario analyses to improve the accuracy of climate-driven disease projections. By identifying future ALB risk zoness, the study provides a scientific foundation for adapting apple production to climate change, enabling targeted agricultural strategies to safeguard industry sustainability.
This work was supported by the Shaanxi Key R&D Program [2023-ZDLNY-64] and the Sanqin Scholars Innovation Team Support Program—Smart Agriculture Innovation Team at Northwest A&F University.
Link to the paper: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110464
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Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Apple Alternaria Leaf Blotch
Recently, a research team led by Professor Yu Qiang and Zhao Gang from the College of Soil and Water Conservation Science and Engineering （Institute of Soil and Water Conservation），Northwest A&F University published a study titled "Climate-driven shifts in suitable areas of Alternaria leaf blotch (Alternaria mali Roberts) on apples: Projections and uncertainty analysis in China" in the journal “Agricultural and Forest Meteorology”. The study delves into the impacts of climate change on the distribution and severity of Alternaria leaf blotch (ALB) in China, analyzing trends and uncertainties in the shifts of ALB-suitable areas. Findings reveal that climate change is likely to expand the range of ALB-suitable regions, with certain areas facing heightened risks in the coming decades.
PhD candidate Bin Chen from Northwest A&F University is the first author of the paper, with Professors Yu Qiang and Zhao Gang serving as corresponding authors. By integrating orchard surveys, public databases, and literature-derived ALB occurrence data, the team employed multiple Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to assess ALB’s environmental suitability. They projected future distributions under various climate scenarios using five Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the CMIP6 dataset. The study compared baseline conditions (1970–2000) with projections for the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585).
Key findings indicate that during the baseline period, ALB-suitable areas were concentrated in major apple-planring regions such as the Bohai Bay, Loess Plateau, and Old Course of the Yellow River. By the 2090s, under the SSP126 scenario, suitable area are projected to decrease by 8.89%. Conversely, under SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, suitable area are expected to increase by 4.89%, 21.30%, and 23.22%, respectively. These regions will shift northwestward by 137–263 km and ascend in elevation by 288–680 meters. The study also quantified uncertainty sources: GCMs contributed 42.2%, SDMs 31.5%, and scenario settings 8.28%.
Figure 1 Changes in the range of suitable areas for Alternaria leaf blotch of apple in China under future conditions, relative to the baseline period.
The research underscores the necessity of integrating multi-model approaches and scenario analyses to improve the accuracy of climate-driven disease projections. By identifying future ALB risk zoness, the study provides a scientific foundation for adapting apple production to climate change, enabling targeted agricultural strategies to safeguard industry sustainability.
This work was supported by the Shaanxi Key R&D Program [2023-ZDLNY-64] and the Sanqin Scholars Innovation Team Support Program—Smart Agriculture Innovation Team at Northwest A&F University.
Link to the paper: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110464